The Final Days
When Montana's legislative session 1st started, MOTTO posted the link under "the twilight zone", and this session has certainly proven why. As the final few days of the regular session wind down, expect as just many head scratching moments as we have seen up to this point. What exactly will happen? While no one can predict specific outcomes at this juncture, two critical elements of the process will play themselves out; the conference committees and the respective caucuses.
With 4 budget bills and at least 3 major tax bills, the conference committees will play an even more significant role. In the past, HB2, the budget bill, had one conference committee. A cut or an addition in one area meant a revision in another. Tedious, but effective. With 4 separate budget bills, it will be more difficult to make the necessary revisions. Additionally, look for the conference committees on the budget bills to share key members. Don't be surprised if the Senate Republican named to these conference committees are Cobb, Laible, or Lewis.
Brokering a reasonable republican tax policy compromise is more likely under the stewardship of Senator Story & Representative Lake, rather than Majority Leader Lange. Story is arguable the most knowledgeable member of the Legislature when it comes to tax, particularly the inter-relationship & implications to state, local, and school district governance.
Finally, the remaining 125 or so legislators who will be waiting to vote on the conference committee actions. Expect each party in each house to caucus early and often. Legislators will be presented with committee action, the why and the how to vote on particular bills. Debate will be organized and perhaps even scripted. The biggest challenge at this late stage is maintaining the bloc of votes. Representative Jore, as he was during the original budget debate, will be a key figure, as will moderate republicans and democrats (if they choose to be).
Oh, and don't be surprised if there is a "Twilight Zone" ending, or endings.....






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